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What’s Really Warming the World? New Study

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Methodology
NASA’s Model
Researchers who study the Earth’s climate create models to test their assumptions about the causes and trajectory of global warming. Around the world there are 28 or so research groups in more than a dozen countries who have written 61 climate models. Each takes a slightly different approach to the elements of the climate system, such as ice, oceans, or atmospheric chemistry.
The computer model that generated the results for this graphic is called “ModelE2,” and was created by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which has been a leader in climate projections for a generation. ModelE2 contains something on the order of 500,000 lines of code, and is run on a supercomputer at the NASA Center for Climate Simulation in Greenbelt, Maryland.
A Global Research Project
GISS produced the results shown here in 2012, as part of its contribution to an international climate-science research initiative called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five. Let’s just call it “Phase-5.”
Phase-5 is designed both to see how well models replicate known climate history and to make projections about where the world’s temperature is headed. Initial results from Phase-5 were used in the 2013 scientific tome published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
There are more than 30 different kinds of experiments included in Phase-5 research. These tests address questions like, what would happen to the Earth’s temperature if atmospheric carbon dioxide suddenly quadrupled? Or, what would the world’s climate be like through 2300 if we keep burning fossil fuels at the current rate?
Phase-5 calls for a suite of “historical” experiments. Research groups were asked to see how well they could reproduce what’s known about the climate from 1850-2005. They were also asked to estimate how the various climate factors—or “forcings”—contribute to those temperatures. That’s why this graphic stops in 2005, even though the GISS observed temperature data is up-to-date. The years 2005-2012 were not a part of the Phase-5 “historical” experiment.
A Word About Temperatures
Climate scientists tend not to report climate results in whole temperatures. Instead, they talk about how the annual temperature departs from an average, or baseline. They call these departures “anomalies.” They do this because temperature anomalies are more consistent in an area than absolute temperatures are. For example, the absolute temperature atop the Empire State Building may be different by several degrees than the absolute temperature at New York’s LaGuardia Airport. But the differences from their own averages are likely to be about the same. It means that scientists can get a better idea about temperature with fewer monitoring stations. That’s particularly useful in places where measurement is very difficult (ie, deserts).
The simulation results are aligned to the observations using the 1880-1910 average. What’s most important about these temperatures are the trends—the shape and trajectory of the line, and not any single year’s temperature.
What the Lines Show
The black “observed” line is the GISS global land and ocean temperature record, which can be found here. It starts in 1880.
The colored temperature lines are the modeled estimates that each climate factor contributes to the overall temperature. Each factor was simulated five times, with different initial conditions; each slide here shows the average of five runs. GISS researchers laid out their historical simulations in detail last year in this article. The modeled years 1850-1879 from the Phase-5 “historical” experiment are not shown because the observed data begins in 1880.
Confidence Ranges
Researchers do not expect their models to reproduce weather events or El Niño phases exactly when they happened in real life. They do expect the models to capture how the whole system behaves over long periods of time. For example, in 1998 there was a powerful El Niño, when the equatorial Pacific Ocean warms ( we’re in another one of that scale now). A simulation wouldn’t necessarily reproduce an El Niño in 1998, but it should produce a realistic number of them over the course of many years.
The temperature lines represent the average of the model’s estimates. The uncertainty bands illustrate the outer range of reasonable estimates.
In short, the temperature lines in the modeled results might not line up exactly with observations. For any year, 95% of the simulations with that forcing will lie inside the band.
Data
Acknowledgments

Many thanks to Kate Marvel and Gavin Schmidt of NASA-GISS.

Credit: Bloomberg Business

More Than Scientists – a new video campaign

more than scientists

A new project—More Than Scientists was launched March 15. It brings together climate scientists, advocacy organizations and the public in an innovative campaign that offers a unique glimpse into the real life stories, personal views and feelings of the experts on climate change.

From leading universities such as MIT, University of Washington and Harvard, climate experts share via video their hopes for the future and what they fear will happen if we don’t act now to reverse the impacts of climate change.

The more than 200 featured videos, created by dozens of climate scientists, are available as a resource to the climate community via their website and YouTube at www.morethanscientists.org.

In addition to sharing the resource, we want to invite climate scientists to participate in sharing their stories.

To learn more about making a video, contact:

Mary Kadzielski, Campaign Manager
More Than Scientists
e: mary@morethanscientists.org | p:  202.810.5462
w: www.morethanscientists.org
twitter: @MTScientists | facebook | g+

Caribbean Climate Modellers & Scientists Participate in the VAMOS/CORDEX Workshop

WCRP CORDEXA contingent of Caribbean climate modellers and scientists recently participated in the VAMOS/CORDEX Workshop on Latin-America and Caribbean. The workshop was held at the Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP) in Lima, Peru ( September 11-13) and brought together an international community of regional climate modellers from South America and the Caribbean.

The workshop sought to:

 (i) pursue an initial assessment of the various CORDEX downscaling initiatives over the South American and Central American CORDEX domains;
 (ii) develop regionally focused vulnerability, impact and adaptation (VIA) user-knowledge; and
 (iii) identify stakeholders’ needs so as to support the science-based information required for climate adaptation, mitigation and risk management in the region.

The Caribbean was represented by members of the regional modelling consortium, including presenters from the Instituto de Meteorlogia (Cuba), the three campuses of The University of the West Indies (Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago), the Antom de Kom University of Suriname, and the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service.

The Caribbean presentations notably highlighted the coordinated and collaborative manner in which modelling is being undertaken within the region and the resulting science. The application of regional climate modelling in determining future flood risk at the watershed scale in the Caribbean was also a highlight.

The EU-GCCA project administered by the 5C’s provided support for the participating Caribbean scientists. Learn more about the VAMOS/CORDEX Workshop: http://www.cima.fcen.uba.ar/LAC-CORDEX/

To learn more about the work of the Caribbean regional modelling consortium, please click here and search for PRECIS (see examples below):

A Study of the Uncertainty in Future Caribbean Climate Using the PRECIS Regional Climate Change Mode

Climate Change in the Caribbean and the Challenge of Adaptation

Glimpses of the Future: A Briefing from the PRECIS Caribbean Climate Change Project

Regional Climate Modeling in the Caribbean

Workbook on Climate Change Impact Assessment in Agriculture

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